Perception vs reality: The actual trends and features of the European Fleet Telematics market

Jackson argued that in a world of "easy answers," many business decisions rely on "loosely associated facts masquerading as insight" or static annual reports. He positioned his firm's "data-first" approach, analyzing 310 million rows of automotive data, as a "sat-nav" to correct these assumptions.

The analysis revealed that contrary to the perception of a post-COVID recovery, overall market growth has been a "meager 1.9%" since 2020, with volumes stuck at 2015 levels. Furthermore, the LCV and HDV markets are diverging, with HDVs now above pre-COVID levels while LCVs lag.

The "misalignment" is most stark in electrification. While LCV EV growth seems strong, it is highly concentrated. Jackson noted that Norway and Sweden, for instance, are now larger markets for electric vans than Italy, a market that registers five times more vans in total. Despite this, telematics providers are deploying EV features in Italy with a similar density to top markets, while overlooking larger opportunities in countries like Belgium and the Netherlands.

Jackson also debunked the idea of a uniform 3G/2G sunset, showing data that 17 of 32 European countries still have over 40% 2G penetration. He concluded that while the market will exceed 30 million units by 2030, providers must use data to challenge their perceptions or risk deploying high-value features in "suboptimal" territories.

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